The brand-new information, released in IIE’s 2026 Spring Picture, exposed that 59% of institutions experienced a decrease in international applications for next year, structure on the 17% decrease in brand-new enrolments in 2025/26.
As such, of the 585 respondents, 63% said they prepared for a reduction in general global trainee levels next year, with nearly one in 4 expecting a “significant decrease”.
Among the numerous colleges experiencing a recession is California State University (CSU), Fresno, where the assistant vice president, worldwide affairs, Eddie West, said he was not shocked by the study’s findings.
“The minority of US institutions which have not experienced a decline are nearly definitely those firmly atop the rankings hierarchy, flawed though such rankings generally are,” stated West.
Among those preparing for the drops, 92% pointed out visa denials and delays as barriers to enrolment, with United States travel restrictions (80%) and trainees choosing other destinations (77%) playing a considerable role.
The slump was most significant at the postgraduate level where 43% of institutions reported a “considerable decline”, compared to 31% at the undergraduate level.
Noticeably, over 60% of institutions saw a drop in applications from India, mainly due to skyrocketing F-1 visa rejections, as study visa issuance to Indian applicants plummeted 62% in 2015.
“Students are not rejecting the US; they are pricing in its volatility, and significantly, the maths favours in other places,” said Sanjay Laul, creator of worldwide recruitment platform MSM Unify.
“If anything, the study might downplay the sentiment shift on the ground.
“When a household is devoting 50– 60 lakh [approximately US$ 70,000], frequently loan-financed, a coin-flip visa outcome is not a danger they can rationalise,” said Laul, adding that visa unpredictability had actually “fundamentally altered” the views of potential trainees.
In 2024/25, there were more than 360,000 Indian students at American colleges, the biggest source market consisting of almost a third of overall overseas enrolments in the US.
Raised F-1 rejection rates for Indian applicants have actually made outcomes feel arbitrary even for strong candidates
Sanjay Laul, MSM Unify
But after almost 18 months of policy volatility under Trump’s second presidency– consisting of widespread visa cancellations, processing delays and the expected end of period of status– Indian trainees are increasingly turning somewhere else.
American policy volatility is among several aspects driving the shift from the ‘big four’ to the so-called ‘huge fourteen’.
Laul pointed to Germany as the “clearest winner” among Indian students, whose interest in the location has actually doubled from 2022, where they see visa approval rates of 90-95% processed in as little as six working days.
Elsewhere, he highlighted the increasing popularity of Ireland for its English-medium education and access to Europe’s tech companies, and the UAE, where Indian students comprise over 49% of total global students: “rising on distance and global branch campuses”.
On top of US visa volatility, Indian trainees have actually been particularly conscious modifications to post-study work opportunities, with Optional Practical Training (OPT) and H-1B both believed to be under danger from the Trump administration.
Laul said unpredictability about the work streams “strikes at the very heart of the Indian value computation, which has actually always been education-to-career, not education alone.”
On the other hand, the photo survey revealed the percentage of United States universities reporting increased or stable applications from China increased from 58% in 2025 to 65% this spring, standing apart as the only one of the leading 15 source countries to see an increase.
Somewhere else, 70% of organizations said they would no longer hire in nations impacted by Trump’s travel restriction on 40 nations and territories — something that West stated might be viewed as “playing the very same transactional, zero-sum video game” as the current administration.
While acknowledging the genuine financial pressures dealing with United States institutions, West called the response a “traditional case of short sightedness”, advising colleges to “construct for a brighter future, which will come”.
“That includes paying attention — in some method, shape, or form — to parts of the world beyond the so-called usual suspects, and engaging for long-lasting, shared benefit, not short-term enrolment gain.”
And despite largely being at the mercy of federal policy, West kept in mind that organizations still had the power to interact with students clearly and truthfully, to reduce unpredictability as much as possible, and to build trust.
Additionally, Laul said the organizations responding with flexibility were the ones weather the storm most efficiently, highlighting 2025/26 IIE information revealing 72% of colleges offered deferments to spring 2026, and 56% used them to fall 2026.
He advised universities to “diversify within India, not simply beyond it”, and to “sell results, not brand”, repeating: “the Indian household of 2026 is running a five-year profession estimation.
Laul invited some favorable signals from the survey, which exposed 84% of organizations still consider worldwide recruitment a concern and nearly as lots of are holding or increasing recruitment spending plans.
IIE deputy director of research study, assessment & learning, Julie Baer, said participants’ continued financial investment in worldwide engagement served as “an effective tip that United States institution of higher learnings continue to see the value of worldwide education”.
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