Adding VAT to private school charges has actually stopped working to activate an exodus of students into the state sector regardless of widespread speculation that it would, the education secretary, Bridget Phillipson, has said.The Labour government applied 20%barrel to private school costs from the start of 2025. They had actually formerly been exempt from the tax. Newly published admissions information for England showed there had actually been no influx towards state schools since then.Phillipson said:”The forecasted exodus from independent schools just has actually
n’t happened and today’s data proves it. Critics alerted state schools would be swamped with new pupils. They were incorrect. They stated private schools would close en masse. They haven’t. “We are rebalancing the system to concentrate on the 94 %of kids in state schools, a majority that has actually been sidelined for too long.” The admissions data is the very first considering that VAT was included, drawn from applications to state schools
made in October last year for locations in the school year starting next September.The former chancellor Jeremy Hunt was among those who forecasted that approximately 90,000 children could go into the state sector after the addition of VAT. However the figures from the Department for Education (DfE) actually showed a decline in total applications for both main and secondary school places this year, while almost 85%of families got their very first choice of secondary school place, higher than in 2025 and 2024. Local authorities in central London with some of the greatest proportions of privately informed kids revealed no signs of an increase in applications. Hammersmith and Fulham and
Kensington and Chelsea both received less applications for locations in September compared to the two previous years. However there was a slight boost in Islington, where the share of families getting their very first preference of secondary school dropped from 68% to 66%. The DfE stated that 94%of secondary candidates and 98 %of main candidates in London received a deal from among their 6 preferred schools and kept in mind:”That is not a system under pressure.
“In Surrey, which was singled out as a most likely hotspot for independent school defections, there were less applications for secondary locations this year, while in Kent there was an increase of 2%. However, professionals warned that
the falling birthrate and post-Brexit population shifts may partially mask any effect of the VAT increase. The DfE’s 2026 school survey found that while the number of kids in schools of all types fell by 1.2 %, the numbers at independent schools were down by 3.8%, a drop of 22,000 compared to 2025. The Independent Schools Council stated that its members have lost 30,000 students given that the introduction of VAT, although the group’s membership includes schools in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland
, while the DfE’s figures are for England alone and include numerous independent schools that are not ISC members.The census recorded a continuing boost in the number of independent schools operating in England, noted by Phillipson. The DfE census revealed an increase of 41 private schools in 2026, but the figure was boosted
by 88 more independent special schools opening, balancing out the 47 mainstream schools that closed.The DfE said that VAT on private school fees was raising more than had actually been at first anticipated, and is now likely to bring in ₤ 1.8 bn each year by 2029-30. The addition of VAT was a Labour manifesto pledge during the 2024 basic election, and the cash raised
was to be put towards employing an additional 6,500 instructors by the end of this parliament. The National Audit Workplace recently cast doubt on the DfE’s ability to satisfy the promise, which is focused on recruiting more secondary, unique needs and additional education instructors.