The new Shorelight study tracks F-1 visa rejections over the last years, during which visa rejections have not just increased across the board, but have actually ended up being structurally focused in specific areas, especially in Africa and South Asia.
“When a student’s possibility of entry depends more on their country of origin than their academic credentials or financing, the stability of the United States visa system is jeopardized,” states the report.
While throughout the board, refusal rates have actually climbed up from 23% in 2015 to 35% in 2025, they have actually also ended up being structurally concentrated in particular areas, the information shows.
“This matters in the context of continual and growing international need,” said Shorelight CEO Tom Dretler: “Today, roughly 1.2 million brand-new students each year are seeking a Western degree taught in English, and that number continues to grow.”
“The United States is not hitting a ceiling; we are successfully building one through policy,” stated Dretler, including that there stayed an opportunity to course-correct and keep America’s global management in bring in global trainees.
And while the refusal rate appeared to stabilise in 2023 and 2024, in 2015 saw a notable upward trend in denials throughout Africa and in a number of countries in South Asia and the Middle East, with the report cautioning the current adjudication landscape in developing “localised refusal clusters”.
African nations have actually regularly seen the highest denial rates of any area, which reached an all-time high of 64% last year.
Most especially, refusal rates in Somalia and Sierra Leone skyrocketed to 91% and 90% respectively, while Sudan’s rejection rate increased from 54% to 76% last year.
With African nations making up over half of the 19 countries targeted by Trump’s June 2025 travel ban, rejections from this area were likely gotten worse by the policy, which halted F-1 visa issuance for trainees from the affected nations.
While every region experienced a rise in denials other than South America where they remained steady, the report cautioned the worldwide circulation of rejection rates was “progressively polarised”, with more nations moving into the 70-80% classification.
The United States is not hitting a ceiling; we are efficiently building one through policy
Tom Dretler, Shorelight
Significantly, Iran, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India all saw significant year-on-year spikes, with refusal rates in 2025 upwards of 60%.
The report raised heightened concerns about India, the US’s biggest sending nation, cautioning such a high rejection rate was “cutting off a vital skill pipeline for US universities, employers and the economy,” creating a “self-inflicted skill scarcity”.
More broadly, it stated United States visa policy was operating in “direct opposition” to international group truths– “ignoring a ‘demographic dividend’ that other competitor countries are capitalising on”.
Noticeably, it keeps in mind the post-secondary trainee population of sub-Saharan Africa will swell to 90 million by 2050, with over half of that development stemming entirely from Nigeria– where students are presently obstructed from studying in the United States.
“The US is currently the only country with the institutional capacity to manage this worldwide growth, yet we are actively ceding our lead through a self-imposed skill embargo,” it mentions, pointing to “aggressive” recruitment expansion in nations such as France and China.
The report approximates the other ‘big 4’ nations are home to less than 400 institutions between them. While Germany has around 400 and China 3,000 universities, the US boasts 4,000 degree-granting organizations.
In other places, it alerts economic effects of the “missed out on opportunity” are already being felt throughout United States schools and communities, which, given the 36% drop in visa issuance last summer, could be as high as $3bn lost in tuition revenue alone.
Shorelight’s experts set out various suggestions for the government, calling for higher transparency in visa rejections, standardised financial assistance, and specialised training for high-refusal consulates.
They argue present requirements require students to show nonimmigrant intent — even as lots of want to get career experience in the US — and supporter for the growth of ‘double intent’ to F-1 applicants to minimize the danger of arbitrary and subjective denials.
What’s more, highlighting that over 70% of students think about the capability to get work experience when choosing a study location, the report requires the securing of OPT by codifying it in US law– something recently put to Congress in a new bipartisan expense.
The suggestions contribute to a growing chorus of sector advocacy as summer season visa season methods, including NAFSA’s restored needs for expedited visa consultations and processing for students and exchange visitors, as well as their exemption from travel restrictions.
The PIE News connected to the State Department for remark however didn’t right away get a reply.
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